The latest Afrobarometer survey has revealed a fragmented political landscape in Malawi, with no political party currently positioned to secure the 50%+1 majority required to win the upcoming 2025 general elections outright.
The findings suggest that coalition-building will be an inevitable strategy for parties seeking to form the next government, as neither the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) appears capable of achieving a solo victory under current conditions.
According to the survey conducted in August 2024, the DPP leads with 43% voter support, followed by the MCP at 29%. Smaller parties, such as the United Transformation Movement (UTM) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), garnered only marginal support, making them potential partners in coalition talks. While the DPP’s lead is significant, it still falls short of the majority threshold, reinforcing the need for political alliances to meet constitutional requirements.
The MCP has, however, raised concerns about the credibility of the survey. Speaking on behalf of the party, Secretary General Richard Chimwendo Banda criticized the findings, pointing to the party’s recent successes in the Karonga by-elections, where the MCP won two seats, leaving the DPP and other opposition parties behind.
“While every organization has the right to conduct research in its own way, past Afrobarometer surveys have misled the public. The MCP has made great strides in earning the confidence of Malawians, and I am confident that we will secure a victory in the 2025 elections,” Banda stated.
Despite the MCP’s reservations, political analysts view the survey as a valuable tool for understanding the current political climate. Political commentator Wonderful Mkhutche noted, “Parties will publicly criticize the report, but privately, it offers them a chance to reflect and strategize. The results will influence not only alliance-building but also campaign messaging, particularly in engaging youth and women voters, who represent a significant portion of the electorate.”
The survey also emphasized high voter engagement, with 84% of eligible Malawians indicating they “will definitely vote” in the 2025 elections. This high turnout potential suggests that citizens are deeply invested in addressing the pressing issues identified in the report, including corruption, economic inequality, and job creation.
The report reveals that 76% of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, although this marks an improvement from 89% in 2022. Citizens were particularly critical of the government’s handling of economic management, with only 29% approving of its efforts to fight corruption.
For the MCP and DPP, the survey highlights critical areas for attention as they shape their electoral campaigns. While the MCP remains optimistic about its grassroots support, the survey paints a picture of a competitive race, with no single party commanding overwhelming public confidence. Coalition-building will likely dominate post-election negotiations, and parties will need to craft policy agendas that resonate with the electorate’s priorities.
As the 2025 elections approach, the Afrobarometer survey underscores the complexity of Malawi’s political landscape. While citizens are engaged and eager for change, the road to political stability will depend on parties’ ability to address public concerns and build strategic alliances. The survey provides a snapshot of a nation grappling with economic and governance challenges, yet motivated to participate actively in shaping its future.
For further insights, visit Afrobarometer or follow updates on #VoicesAfrica.
