The International Institute for Research and Development (IIRD Africa), a Malawi-based consulting firm, has released a pre-election survey suggesting that the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is leading the race ahead of the September 2025 polls.
The nationwide survey was conducted between 11 August and 3 September 2025.
The survey sampled 5,002 respondents, with 44.9 percent from the Central Region, 42.7 percent from the Southern Region, and 12.4 percent from the Northern Region.
Findings show that MCP, led by President Lazarus Chakwera, enjoys 56.5 percent support, translating to about 4.07 million votes, making it the only party projected to cross the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright win.
Former President Peter Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) follows with 27.2 percent (1.96 million votes), with its strength concentrated in the Southern Region but weaker in other areas.
The United Transformation Movement (UTM), under Dalitso Kabambe, is placed third with 6.6 percent (480,000 votes), showing particular appeal among youth and urban voters.
Other parties, including UDF, PP, OZAM, PDP, and independents, collectively command about 8 percent, but their support remains scattered.
According to IIRD Africa, MCP’s dominance in the Central and Northern regions more than offsets its weakness in the South, giving the party a commanding national advantage and a clear path to a possible first-round victory.
On voter priorities, the survey also captured top voter concerns, with the economy and rising prices topping the list at 49 percent.
Food security followed at 28.5 percent, while jobs and youth employment accounted for 8.5 percent.
Corruption was ranked fourth at 7.3 percent. Other issues cited include education, health, and infrastructure.
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