Once a beacon of hope after Malawi’s historic 2020 election rerun, Lazarus Chakwera now faces an electorate battered by economic pain and political déjà vu. On September 16, voters will decide if his promise of change still holds or if it is time to turn the page.
By Collins Mtika:
Five years ago, Lazarus Chakwera swept into Malawi’s highest office on a wave of hope, promising to “clear the rubble of impunity” and lead the country to prosperity.
Now, as Malawians prepare to vote on September 16, 2025, the Pastor-turned-President faces the toughest battle of his political career, a fight not just against rivals, but against a wave of public disillusionment that threatens to cut his presidency short.
From symbol of change to target of frustration
Chakwera’s rise was historic. In 2020, Malawi’s Constitutional Court annulled a fraudulent election, only the second time in Africa’s history that such a ruling overturned a presidential result.
Riding a groundswell of popular demand for change, Chakwera and his Tonse Alliance defeated incumbent Peter Mutharika in the court-ordered rerun.
At his inauguration, he promised a new era of accountability, opportunity, and growth.
But as the 2025 polls approach, the optimism that once defined his presidency has been replaced by widespread frustration over economic decline, persistent corruption, and a political scene still dominated by old faces.
His main challengers are Mutharika, now 85, and former president Joyce Banda, 74, both leaders Chakwera once positioned himself against as symbols of the past.
That the race is again between these familiar figures underscores the perception that Malawi’s political system has failed to produce fresh leadership.
Economic turbulence: Chakwera’s greatest weakness
Nothing has done more to damage Chakwera’s re-election chances than the state of the economy.
Polls show 89% of Malawians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, with over 70% living on less than $2.15 a day.
Chakwera’s government has faced crises beyond its control, like COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and Cyclone Freddy in 2023, but also policy decisions that deepened public pain.
The 44% devaluation of the Kwacha in November 2023, designed to secure a $175 million IMF credit facility, triggered a surge in prices for food, fuel, and farm inputs.
“Before the devaluation, a bag of fertilizer was MK 75,000; today it costs MK 190,000,” said a Lilongwe businessman. “Everything has gone up, but incomes haven’t changed.”
The government insists these are necessary steps toward economic recovery. The opposition calls them a “death sentence to Malawians.”
Chakwera’s 2020 pledge to create one million jobs has become a bitter point of mockery, replaced in the public imagination by his controversial program to send young Malawians to work on Israeli farms.
Critics say it is proof the government cannot generate decent jobs at home.
Anti-Corruption drive loses Steam
Chakwera campaigned as a corruption fighter, initially boosting resources for the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) and declaring graft Malawi’s “biggest enemy.”
But public trust has eroded amid accusations of selective justice and political convenience.
The Zuneth Sattar procurement scandal, which allegedly implicated dozens of officials, including the late Vice President Saulos Chilima, tested Chakwera’s resolve.
While he removed Chilima’s powers and dismissed some officials, critics say the entrenched networks remain untouched.
The quiet removal of ACB Director General Martha Chizuma in May 2024, after she was harassed for voicing frustrations over lack of government support, was seen as the end of a genuine anti-corruption push.
A collapsed Alliance and rising Opposition
The political coalition that carried Chakwera to victory in 2020 no longer exists.
The Tonse Alliance splintered in July 2024 when the United Transformation Movement (UTM) withdrew, leaving Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Party (MCP) on its own under the 50%+1 system, which demands broad electoral coalitions.
The sudden death of UTM leader and Vice President Chilima in June 2024 left a leadership vacuum among the youth and reform-minded voters.
Meanwhile, Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has rebounded.
An August 2024 Afrobarometer poll placed the DPP at 43% support, compared to 29% for the MCP, a stunning reversal for a party voted out just five years ago over corruption and arrogance.
The Road to September 16
Chakwera’s re-election bid now rests on convincing Malawians that his government has laid the groundwork for a future recovery, despite present suffering.
His campaign is expected to lean on his 2020 democratic victory, positioning himself as the only candidate capable of protecting reforms and steering the country through global and domestic storms.
But he faces an electorate weary of hardship and skeptical of political promises.
Catholic Bishops recently accused his administration of leading the nation not to prosperity, but to “Bagamoyo,” a metaphor for betrayal, invoking a port once linked to the slave trade.
If Chakwera wins, it will mark a remarkable political escape for a leader many had already written off.
If he loses, it will be a sharp reversal for a man who began his presidency as a symbol of hope and democratic renewal.
On September 16, Malawians will decide whether Chakwera deserves another five years or whether his moment as the nation’s change-maker has passed.
