As Malawi edges closer to the September 16, 2025 general elections, the political terrain is both familiar and precariously uncertain.
The 50%+1 rule, a legacy of the 2020 Constitutional Court ruling, has reshaped the electoral game. Gone are the days when a stronghold in one region could carry a candidate to Kamuzu Palace.
Victory today demands coalitions, compromise, and cross-regional appeal.
At first glance, President Lazarus Chakwera appears to hold the advantage. As the incumbent, he commands state machinery and enjoys solid support in the Central Region.
But incumbency is no longer a guarantee, especially in a country where alliances disintegrate as quickly as they form, and regional loyalties are more fragmented than ever.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the Northern Region. Once the heartbeat of AFORD, it has since become an electoral swing zone, crucial but unpredictable. It is the land of political arithmetic, where numbers rarely align neatly for any one party.
Which is why the Southern Region, and more specifically, one man, may hold the key to the 2025 race.
Atupele Austin Muluzi.
To understand his potential role is to understand both the man and the moment. Atupele is among the most recognisable political figures of his generation, blending inherited legacy with a forward-looking technocratic image.
Though he lost his Machinga parliamentary seat in 2019, a symbolic blow, his political capital has always been national rather than local.
The Muluzi name still stirs loyalty across the Yao belt and much of the South, invoking a nostalgic echo of the UDF’s “yellow days.”
Critics dismiss him as a dynast, too cautious or too calculated. But in politics, caution is not weakness, it is often strategy.
Since his dramatic split with the DPP, Atupele has kept a deliberate silence. Behind that quiet, however, is a storm of negotiations.
He recently accused the DPP base of failing to appreciate his contribution to the 2020 campaign, claiming he crisscrossed the country while Peter Mutharika’s “tired legs” struggled to keep pace.
He’s not wrong. The DPP-UDF ticket won over 1.7 million votes, a significant portion of which were credited to Atupele’s relentless campaigning.
Today, the DPP is internally fractured, uncertain whether to field Mutharika again or pass the baton to a new generation. Meanwhile, UTM, once Chakwera’s primary ally, is a shadow of its former self.
The death of Vice President Saulos Klaus Chilima left a vacuum that Madalitso Kabambe has struggled to fill. His leadership is clouded by ambiguity and alleged leanings toward the DPP.
In this fog of uncertainty, Atupele’s phone is surely ringing from both camps.
The DPP would likely welcome him back, desperate to reassert dominance in the South and East. But if Chakwera is paying attention, and he should be, then Atupele may be his best bet for unlocking southern votes without having to rely on volatile or weakened partners.
Such a partnership nearly materialised in 2020. Quiet negotiations between the MCP and UDF reportedly took place in the lead-up to that historic election, though they never bore fruit. With UTM all but out and the DPP adrift, the moment may have returned.
Strategically, it makes sense. Atupele brings youth, modernity, and a credible reformist image, a fresh counterweight to Chakwera’s seasoned statesmanship.
He also brings regional votes, an organised party structure, and the lingering affection of a nostalgic electorate tired of stagnation.
Yes, the optics may raise eyebrows. Both Chakwera and Muluzi carry the baggage of elite politics, and critics will no doubt frame any potential alliance as a recycling of old dynasties.
But in an election likely to be won or lost by the narrowest of margins, pragmatic arithmetic will outweigh ideological purity.
The loss of his parliamentary seat remains the lowest point in Atupele’s political journey, a sharp reminder of voter impatience with family fiefdoms.
But 2025 may offer him the perfect stage for political redemption. Whether he partners with the DPP again, realigns with MCP, or simply holds the balance of power from the sidelines, one thing is clear: Atupele is no longer a side character in Malawi’s electoral playbook.
He is the threshold, he is the tipping point.
In a political culture where power often shifts behind closed doors before it is announced at the ballot box, Atupele Muluzi may well be the final brushstroke in the portrait of Malawi’s next government. Whether as kingmaker, coalition partner, or quiet force behind the throne, his role is no longer peripheral.
It is pivotal.
