By Watipaso Mzungu:
China’s trade surplus has crossed US$1.043 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, a figure that is more than a trade statistic and a demonstration of the power of industrialisation, manufacturing capacity and strategic economic planning.
The latest data, released by China’s General Administration of Customs on 10 November 2026, shows China topping US$1 trillion for the second consecutive year and putting the annual figure on track to surpass last year’s record of US$1.2 trillion.
Chief Economist and Executive Director of Don Consultancy Group (DCG), Chifipa Mhango, has since described the development as a wake-up call for African countries, including Malawi.
Even more revealing, Mhango says, is China’s trade relationship with Africa. Between January and October 2026, China recorded a staggering US$101.4 billion trade surplus with Africa, almost matching its entire 2025 surplus of US$102 billion. China exported US$224.1 billion worth of goods to Africa, while importing just US$122.7 billion from the continent.
Mhango argues that the imbalance should force African governments to confront an uncomfortable truth: Africa cannot continue being a supplier of the raw materials that power other economies while remaining a market for their finished products.
“China did not become a global economic powerhouse by exporting its natural resources alone; it invested in the capacity to manufacture, transform and export value-added products,” Mhango says.
He says the first lesson for African countries is to move beyond exporting raw materials. Minerals, agricultural products and natural resources must increasingly be processed locally, so that value, jobs and profits remain on the continent.
The second lesson, according to Mhango, is to invest in manufacturing. African countries must build industries that produce machinery, equipment, components and finished products, rather than relying almost entirely on imports for goods they consume.
Third, trade must be used strategically. Mhango says trade agreements must attract investment, technology transfer and local production, and not merely facilitate imports that undercut local producers.
Fourth, African countries must develop regional value chains. Through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), he says, African countries should pool markets, skills and resources to manufacture competitively, instead of competing against each other as small, fragmented economies.
Fifth, and most fundamentally, African countries must build productive capacity. Industrialisation, energy security, infrastructure, skills and technology must become national economic priorities, not side issues in budget speeches.
“The lesson is simple,” Mhango emphasizes. “It is time for African governments to move beyond talking about economic growth and prioritise the productive capacity that creates it.”
He warns that as long as Africa exports raw materials and imports finished goods, the trade gap with China and other major economies will continue to widen, regardless of how fast the continent’s GDP grows on paper.
“The future of Africa’s economic independence lies not just beneath its soil, but in what it can produce from what lies beneath it,” Mhango says.
